It is Mark Twain who said ‘history never repeats itself, but it does often rhyme.’ This has never been more important than when we discuss the fate of the United Kingdom. A little over a century ago, the fierce battle was going on in the Houses of Parliament over Irish Home Rule. This was the existential crisis which led to Ireland becoming an independent country. Now, it is Scotland having this fundamental conversation over its place in the Union. I believe quite fundamentally that history is rhyming again, and it is time that Westminster learnt its lesson.
Kill Home Rule with Kindness
Throughout the late Victorian and Edwardian period, the Irish Parliamentary Party called for an Irish Parliament in Dublin, akin to modern day devolution in the UK. The answer to these calls, by Conservatives and Liberal Unionists, was to kill home rule with kindness. This in practice was a set of policies which gave peasants lands, and other economic changes. These legislative changes might have made it easier for peasants to buy their land, it missed the fundamental point. During this period, there was a growing and distinct sense of Irishness in Ireland which wanted a formal political institution. This agenda could never placate the cultural and political desire for autonomy.
I believe we face the same problem in the Union today. In the lead up to the Edinburgh agreement in 2012, there was a growing debate over Devo-Max. This involved devolving full tax raising ability to the Scottish Parliament. It was the decision of Prime Minister David Cameron to not allow this on the ballot in the 2014 referendum. Polling suggests that upwards of half Scottish and Welsh people want some form of devo-max. Combined with this, northern towns in England voted to ‘take back control’ in 2016. This partly involved the desire for a new political settlement within England. This is supported by 2015 polling from ComRes suggesting that 82% of northern adults want some form of devolution. This all supports the argument that there is a growing desire for constitutional change, outside of Westminster. Successive governments have attempted to placate this, with an ill-defined ‘levelling up’ or ‘northern powerhouse’ agenda. Just as with the Irish Land Acts, levelling up money is required to tackle regional inequality. But, it will not deal with the fundamental desire for politics to work differently. Despite this desire being stronger in Scotland, that does not mean we should ignore the growing grumblings of an unfair political settlement within England. The lesson to learn from killing home rule with kindness does not work, and the best answer is to embrace a new political settlement.
Too little, too late
The Liberal Government in 1912 presented the third Government of Ireland Bill. Westminster then spent two years discussing how Home Rule should be implemented, how much power should be devolved and how to deal with Ulster Unionism. This was clearly not easy to solve, but then the Great War happened. This sealed the fate for the Union in Ireland. The 1916 Easter Rising created martyrs, and by 1918, Sinn Féin won a landslide in Ireland. 1919 saw Ireland declare its independence. By circling back to 1912, it seems like a distracted Westminster offered Ireland too little, too late. The demands for autonomy within the Union were not met, so they hardened for independence.
Again, the United Kingdom faces a similar crisis today. Our main unionist parties, the Conservatives and Labour, are clear that they will not grant a Scottish Independence referendum for another generation. Some unionists will even go as far as making a positive argument for the Union. But, this misses the point. In 2014, a vow was created between these parties and the Scottish people. They agreed if Scotland voted to remain in the Union, far greater devolution would be granted. For many this meant fiscal devolution, but for the Conservatives, it ultimately meant more half-baked devolution. This broken promise creates resentment, rejecting a referendum with no criteria for a future referendum created even more resentment. This is the same problem which we faced in Ireland over a century ago, where the unionists parties debated and negotiated between themselves, while the Irish people moved onto the fundamental question of Independence. The lesson is clear: we should be offering the nations and regions of the UK a better deal, if we are to save our Union. This means a radical, new political settlement. If we fail to do this, just as happened in 1919, the Union will crumble a little more.
Conclusion
The United Kingdom is facing a familiar crossroads. Last time, Westminster chose to do too little and to squabble between themselves, instead of finding the solution. This led to bloodshed, and Ireland ultimately becoming an independent country. We are facing a similar crossroads. A second Scottish independence referendum will happen, that is inevitable. Scottish Independence is not necessarily a given, but neither is the Union staying intact. If Westminster and more widely unionists, want to save the Union, they must learn the lessons from last time. They must recognise that economic changes and investment is helpful, but does not fundamentally deal with desires for autonomy. Complacency will lead to resentment, and ultimately tear apart the Union.
Obviously, Westminster has already made significant mistakes towards our Union. The feeling of betrayal is strong in Scotland, because the unionist parties created The Vow, yet never delivered substantial and radical devolution to the Scottish people. So, we will never truly know if we are too late to recognise our Union is under real threat. The lesson of a century ago is that we need to abandon complacency, own up to the betrayal and deliver on the political promise given to the four nations of our Union. In this, we can create an equal partnership between each part of the United Kingdom.
This also is not just a Scottish problem. This growing desire for political change exists across the UK. I fundamentally believe that the anthem of Brexit, “take back control”, was not just about Brussels, but also about regions across our Union taking back control from an over centralised Westminster. Yet, that thirst has not been quenched. Resentment will grow, if we fail to offer radical political solutions to these desires.
The Next Conversation 